So, no movement on the house due to rain... I thought I would post a thought just for grins and since I know no one is reading this anyway...

The Danger of Populism

Some consider the political spectrum to be something like Figure 1.

In many ways, in that spectrum, the far left and far right are much the same, just different uniforms. A more accurate political spectrum that clarifies roles and extremes is the power of government (see figure 2).

Historically, the most common form of government is the Oligarchy. Even the dictators and monarchs have had their councils and elite that help keep them in power. Often Anarchy is fomented by an Oligarchy, to create the willingness of the people to gain control of the chaos. Communist Russia and the Russia under Putin are two examples, as is post WWII China. Democracy, or people rule (from the Greek) has a flaw—the potential unrighteous dominion of the majority. A Republic is a government ruled by law, not by the majority alone. The lynch mob can hang a supposed criminal in a Democracy where the lynch mob majority votes yes. In a Republic, the law protects the supposed criminal to a fair trial. In fact in the highest form of a Republic there is concern over type I and type 2 errors—where the guilty might be set free if there is doubt over guilt in order to ensure no innocents are punished. In a lower form of a Republic the guilty are punished and also some innocents who were in the wrong place at the wrong time to ensure all the guilty are for sure caught. I am grateful to live in a country where OJ Simpson went free and not an Argentina during its Dirty War against terrorists. How close did we come after 911?

No where in the Declaration of Independence or the Constitution is the word democracy used (nor in any of the constitutions of the 50 states). Greeks experimented with democracy and it led to anarchy and eventually oligarchy. The Romans experimented with the republic and that led to wealth. Some discovered the power of this wealth and overturned the republic into a democracy (with crazy things like agricultural subsidies, pork barrel projects, a dole) and finally anarchy and, yep you guessed it an oligarchy. Will Durant (The Story of Civilization) suggest from his study of history that democracy is really only a transition from the rule of law to the oligarchy. “As soon as liberty is complete it dies in anarchy,” he suggested. The Founding Fathers also understood history and form a republic, not a democracy. The Federalist Papers discuss this issue at length (See Madison’s tract in the tenth paper for example). Remember, the Pledge of Allegiance is "to the Republic."

The essence of freedom is the limitation of government. Not limitation to the point where government cannot protect the people, but limitation from the rule of the few and the rule of the majority alone. The box below is a model of the basic building blocks of any government. Some level of power and some accepted common identity by the ruling body. If that government has a monopoly on coercive power it tends to be an Oligarchy. If that government has an irreducible common identity that is usually represented in the rule of law, that is, a Republic. See Figure 3

One oft used form of republic decay has come in the form of populism—the democratic breakdown of the rule of law. Populists generally gain power or support in periods of crisis or perceived crisis. In other words, history has demonstrated that the populist leader is perceived as a savior from crisis and the people hand over their power.
Like Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, this form of populism “buys” the vote in a democratic society where government is allowed to grow too powerful and too huge... The republic begins its tailspin to anarchy and eventual oligarchy, not unlike the experience of Peron’s Argentina when they ran out of their "plata dulce" gold reserves. So what would happen if Hugo Chavez or Vladimir Putin didn’t have their petro dollars? What would happen if the United States debt was called by the international community, or the government simply couldn’t pay its bills? If this populist bailout package doesn’t work, you can be sure a level of anarchy we have never experienced in this country will be a potential outcome. If it does work, it is possible (but hopefully not probable) we will be left with a less painful transition to Oligarchy, but Oligarchy none the less. See Figure 4


I am not saying any of this could or would really happen, but it is a concern as we all move through this period of crisis. It didn’t happen with Roosevelt. I hope Obama is as visionary a leader.

When Benjamin Franklin exited the Constitutional Convention a lady asked him, “Sir, what have you given us?” His response was, “A Republic Ma’am, if you can keep it.” Yet most Americans when asked would say we have a Democracy—not a Republic. That has me a little worried.